NFL playoff picture: Dolphins’ loss means big news for Chiefs, Bills

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture, typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable – even Black Friday, when you get an earlier look at the postseason developments).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 5.
Here’s where things stand with Week 13 of the 2024 season underway:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1), AFC West leaders: The Bills’ head-to-head tiebreaker advantage still means K.C. can’t afford to backslide at all – especially as the champs will be back in action on Black Friday against Las Vegas. The Chiefs can lock up a berth this weekend with a win or tie thanks to Miami’s loss on Thanksgiving. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos
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2. Buffalo Bills (9-2), AFC East leaders: Coming out of their break, they’ll draw a battered San Francisco squad at home – possibly in the midst of lake effect weather – as they seek a sixth consecutive victory. A fifth consecutive division title is practically a foregone conclusion (a win Sunday night does the trick), and Pittsburgh’s Week 12 loss only solidified the Bills’ standing near the top of the conference. And, with that potentially pivotal tiebreaker against the Chiefs in hand, the Bills could soon steer the road to Super Bowl 59 through Western New York. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Rams, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3), AFC North leaders: A win at Cleveland last week would have vaulted them ahead of the Bills and into the No. 2 seed. Instead, the Steelers suffered a damaging loss – and to a divisional opponent (Cleveland) no less – that could greatly hinder their ability to compete for home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals
4. Houston Texans (7-5), AFC South leaders: Losers of four of six after falling at home to lowly Tennessee on Sunday, it’s starting to appear like they might back onto the throne of a bad division and be one-and-done once postseason starts. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, BYE, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4), wild card No. 1: Good as they (usually) are – including Monday night’s fairly convincing defeat of the Chargers in “Harbaugh Bowl III” – losses to the wrong teams could well mean no home playoff games this season. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, BYE, at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), wild card No. 2: They’re starting to look like the NFL’s Hoosiers, better competition amplifying their flaws – say, perhaps, a somewhat overrated defense, youngsters still not quite ready for prime time (WR Quentin Johnston) and a run game now without injured RB J.K. Dobbins for a period of time. Still, these Bolts have a lot of Charger-ing to do in order to drop out of the field. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders
7. Denver Broncos (7-5), wild card No. 3: Their hold on the AFC’s last berth continues to harden and should continue to do so in the coming weeks … unless they manage to jump the Chargers. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, BYE, vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-7), in the hunt: They’re starting to lose sight of Denver and the final wild-card slot after Sunday’s setback, though they’ll get a shot at them in the Mile High City soon enough. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, BYE, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars
9. Miami Dolphins (5-7), in the hunt: QB Tua Tagovailoa was excited to “kill narratives” Thursday night … like the one that says the Fins can’t win in cold weather. Welp. Miami’s three-game win streak ended in Lambeau Field, and its playoff hopes also took a serious hit – as did the team’s positioning, a Week 7 loss at Indianapolis dropping the Dolphins behind the Colts. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), in the hunt: Soul-crushing losses in their previous two games might be too much to overcome. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cowboys, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers
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1. Detroit Lions (11-1), NFC North leaders: They were fortunate to fend off the Bears 23-20 on Thanksgiving for the first 11-1 start in franchise history. The victory keeps the Lions in the conference lead and gives them a remote chance of locking up a postseason berth this weekend. The simplest scenarios require losses by the 49ers and Cardinals plus either losses by the Seahawks and Buccaneers or losses by the Seahawks and Commanders and Falcons. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2), NFC East leaders: They’re officially a clear and present danger to Detroit and might run away, a la RB Saquon Barkley, with this division … though Sunday’s assignment in Baltimore will be no crab cakewalk. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Panthers, vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5), NFC West leaders: No team had a better Week 12, the ‘Hawks leaping from ninth-place also-rans to division front-runners after knocking off the Cards. Wins over Arizona and Atlanta jump Seattle into this spot. Remaining schedule: at Jets, at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5), NFC South leaders: They dropped a seed on their week off. A season sweep of the Bucs effectively gives Atlanta a two-game lead in the division, but the Falcons have no such edge on the suddenly surging Saints. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers
5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2), wild card No. 1: They’re winning ugly – including Sunday’s overtime escape at Chicago – but have also won four straight. It may not seem like Vikes are a threat to win their division, yet they’re only one game back of Detroit in the NFC North loss column. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions
6. Green Bay Packers (9-3), wild card No. 2: After handling the warm-weather Dolphins in Lambeau’s sub-freezing temperatures, the Pack also remain relevant in the NFC North while further entrenching another postseason bid. Remaining schedule: at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears
7. Washington Commanders (7-5), wild card No. 3: Ambushed by the Cowboys in Week 12, that’s three losses in a row for a team that needs to get its mojo back if it’s going to hold off the horde of lurking NFC West wannabes … who aren’t far from becoming could-bes. They can just about forget any thoughts of winning the NFC East. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, BYE, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5), in the hunt: Their four-game win streak – and division lead – went up in smoke at Seattle on Sunday. Key games the next two weeks. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6), in the hunt: Their four-game slide now in the rearview after embarrassing the Giants in Week 12, the opportunity is there to have a strong finishing kick, one that already vaulted them up from 11th place Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6), in the hunt: They weren’t competitive Sunday night against Philly. A Week 3 win over San Francisco keeps them ahead of the Niners for now, but an inferior conference record drops them behind the Bucs. Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Bills, at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6), in the hunt: The talent is still here, there’s just not enough of it on the field right now − as was obvious last Sunday in Green Bay. And they’re back in a cold-weather (and perhaps snowscaped) Buffalo environment in Week 13. Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals
12. Dallas Cowboys (5-7), in the hunt: Hand it to Mike McCarthy’s crew – they’re not dying easy, when it would be quite easy at this point, to do exactly that. Their latest win – and first at home this year – over the Giants on Thanksgiving moves them past the Saints for now, though New Orleans owns the head-to-head tiebreaker due to a Week 2 rout at “Jerry World.” Dallas’ near-term goal? Get back to .500 and see what happens from there. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Panthers, vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Commanders
13. New Orleans Saints (4-7), in the hunt: They’re 2-0 under interim HC Darren Rizzi. And given the way the NFC South is compressing, don’t count them out. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Giants, vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers
14. Chicago Bears (4-8), in the hunt: They came out flat Thursday, mounted a valiant second-half comeback at Detroit … then completely imploded on their final drive, when a field goal would have tied the game. Thus, almost certainly, ends any chance they had of sneaking into the playoff field, the Bears cooked on Thanksgiving. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers
Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with:
▶ Win
Kansas City clinches a playoff berth with:
▶ Win or tie
Detroit clinches a playoff berth with:
▶ New York Giants
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.